Why Most Altcoins Haven't Broken ATH

1. **Bitcoin Dominance & Capital Rotation**:

- Bitcoin (BTC) dominance remains high at **~61%** , indicating capital is still concentrated in BTC rather than altcoins.

- Historically, altseason requires BTC dominance to drop **below 54%**, which hasn't occurred yet . After Bitcoin's recent ATH (~$111,814 on May 22, 2025), capital has not consistently rotated into alts .

2. **Liquidity & Macroeconomic Pressures**:

- The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) and high interest rates (>4%) reduce risk appetite, limiting liquidity for volatile altcoins .

- Institutional capital is currently focused on Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., $1.37B inflows during recent volatility) rather than altcoins .

3. **Market Maturity & Selectivity**:

- Unlike 2017/2021, today's market has thousands of altcoins, and gains are concentrated in assets with **strong fundamentals** (e.g., AI, DePIN, RWAs) or viral narratives, leaving many legacy alts behind .

- Investors are more selective, avoiding projects without clear utility .

4. **Regulatory & Geopolitical Uncertainty**:

- Ongoing regulatory ambiguity (e.g., Ripple case) delays institutional altcoin adoption .

- Recent Middle East tensions caused market-wide crashes, hitting altcoins hardest .

5. **Delayed Altseason Triggers**:

- The **Altcoin Season Index** remains at **21** (well below the 75 threshold needed for a true altseason) .

- Analysts like Nic Puckrin (CoinBureau) emphasize that altseason requires three conditions:

✓ BTC dominance <54%

✓ BTC consolidating above ATH

✓ Fed ending QT .