#FOMCMeeting **FOMC Meeting Preview: All Eyes on Fed’s Stance Amid Tariffs and Inflation**

The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting today (June 18), with the rate decision due at **2:00 PM ET**, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at **2:30 PM ET** . Here’s what to expect:

1. **Rate Hold Certainty**:

The Fed is widely expected (**99.9% probability**) to maintain the benchmark rate at **4.25%-4.50%**, unchanged since December 2024. This reflects caution over Trump’s trade tariffs, which risk reigniting inflation (now at 2.4%) and slowing growth .

2. **Dot Plot in Focus**:

With the rate decision seen as a foregone conclusion, markets will scrutinize the updated **Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot)**. The March forecast signaled two 2025 rate cuts, but recent data and geopolitical tensions (e.g., Israel-Iran conflict) may push the Fed toward a more hawkish stance—potentially projecting just one cut this year .

3. **Political Pressure Mounts**:

President Trump has repeatedly demanded aggressive rate cuts (calling Powell a “numbskull”), criticizing the Fed’s inaction. However, policymakers remain data-dependent, citing tariff uncertainty and resilient job growth as reasons to pause .

4. **Market & Consumer Impact**:

A hold means continued high borrowing costs: **30-year mortgages (~7%)** and **credit card rates (20%+)**. Savers benefit from elevated yields on savings accounts and CDs, but borrowers face pressure .

**Bottom Line**: The Fed’s messaging on inflation, growth projections, and 2024 rate-cut timelines will drive market reactions more than the decision itself. Powell’s tone—whether acknowledging softening retail sales or tariff risks—could sway investor sentiment .

*Follow live updates and analysis post-announcement.*