🇺🇸 FOMC Recap – June 18, 2025
📌 Rates Held Steady Again
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, marking its third consecutive pause. Despite mounting pressure from former President Donald Trump to slash rates, the Fed reaffirmed its independence 🏛️ and chose caution over politics.
🗣️ Trump’s Warning
Trump hinted he might "force something" if inflation continues to drop and the Fed doesn’t act. Markets interpreted this as potential political intervention if monetary policy stays tight.
📉 Dot Plot Shift
The updated dot plot now shows just one rate cut in 2025, revised down from two earlier projections. This signals a more hawkish stance in light of mixed labor data and ongoing uncertainty.
🌍 Key Risks Highlighted
The Fed cited growing concerns over trade tariffs, geopolitical instability, and inconsistent job numbers as reasons for the cautious tone.
📅 September in Focus
Markets are now eyeing September as the likely window for a potential rate cut, depending heavily on incoming inflation and employment data.
🎙️ Powell’s Message
Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed’s commitment to a data-driven path, staying focused on economic fundamentals and ignoring political noise 📈.