#FOMCMeeting The Federal Reserve System (FOMC) will meet on June 18, and markets strongly bet that there will be no rate cut. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 99.9% probability that rates will remain at 4.25%-4.50%. Why? Persistent inflation and Trump's tariffs may keep prices high, while a weakening labor market (unemployment at 4.2%, layoffs up to 80% by 2025) contributes to a rate decrease.

Despite the slim chances now, the probability of a decrease to 4%-4.25% by September exceeds 65% if inflation decreases and the job situation worsens. However, Bank of America forecasts that there will be no rate cuts until 2026. What do you think the Fed will do?