#FOMCMeeting
Here’s the latest on the #FOMC meeting held June 17–18, 2025:
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📌 What Happened at the June 17–18 FOMC Meeting
Policy Rate: The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting .
Geopolitical & Trade Impact: Officials flagged increased uncertainty from Middle East tensions and new U.S. tariffs, noting their potential to sustain inflation .
Economic Data: Mixed May data—weak retail sales and soft industrial output weighed against stable job market and slowly cooling inflation near the Fed’s 2% target .
Forward Guidance: The Fed adopted a cautious “wait-and-see” approach, emphasizing future decisions will depend on how trade, geopolitical, and economic data evolve .
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🟦 What’s New
Dot Plot Shift: The updated Summary of Economic Projections (“dot plot”) is likely to forecast fewer rate cuts in 2025—possibly just one cut, down from two expected earlier .
Market Sentiment: Traders are now pricing in the first rate cut around September 2025, with about a 60–65% chance, while a mid-year cut is seen as highly unlikely .
Powell’s Press Conference: Chair Powell will host a press briefing today (~2:30 p.m. EDT), offering deeper insight into economic forecasts and the dot-plot rationale .
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🔍 Key Takeaways for You
Impact Area Summary
Borrowers Rates staying high means borrowing (mortgages, auto loans, credit cards) remains costly.
Savers Higher rates boost returns on savings, money markets, and CDs—potential opportunity.
Markets Wall Street will closely watch Powell’s tone—whether the Fed leans toward a cut or maintains caution.
Policy Outlook The Fed is monitoring how tariffs, geopolitics, and growth/inflation data interact. A cut isn’t ruled out, but timing depends on clarity in Q3 data.
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To recap: The Fed held steady, flagged risk from trade and geopolitics, signaled a slower path to rate cuts, and noted that clarity on economic conditions will guide next steps.
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