Bitcoin's price failed to make a comeback around $106,800, starting a new round of slight decline. Now, BTC is 'circling' around $106,200, which has become its 'roadblock.'
The price has fallen below the 'small defense line' of $106,200, and then continued to slide down, already below $106,800 and the 100-hour simple moving average (simply put, it's the market reference line). From the hourly chart, BTC has formed a small triangle support, with the baseline at $104,200 (data source: Kraken).
If BTC can hold above $103,500, there is a chance to start a new round of increases, so let's wait and see!
Bitcoin price has plunged again!
Originally, everyone was hoping Bitcoin could break through the major level of $108,800, but it didn't go as hoped, starting a new round of decline, successively breaking below the 'defense lines' of $108,000 and $107,000.
Worse still, the price directly dropped below the key support level of $106,200, and ultimately even dipped to around $103,500. The lowest point was at $103,400, and now the price is 'resting' and consolidating around this area, having slightly rebounded and stabilizing above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the high of $108,924 to the low of $103,400.
In simple terms, Bitcoin has dropped quite a bit, but it's also starting to breathe slowly. Whether it can rebound next depends on its performance!
Bitcoin's current price has fallen below $106,800 and is also below the 100-hour simple moving average (don't worry, it's just a tool to measure the recent average price level). On the hourly chart of BTC/USD, the price is quietly forming a short-term triangle, with a reference support level of $104,200.
Looking upwards, the first 'small hill' is near $105,200; the more critical 'barrier' is around $105,500. If Bitcoin can successfully break through here, the next big target is $106,200, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level between the high of $108,924 and the low of $103,400, an important 'rebound' point in technical analysis.
If Bitcoin's closing price successfully breaks through the 'small barrier' of $106,200, it is expected to initiate a new upward trend! Next, the price is likely to challenge the 'defense line' of $108,000. If the bulls are strong enough, there is even a chance to surge to around $110,000, which is truly exciting.
In simple terms, breaking through $106,200 is like opening the door to higher price levels. Whether it can move up smoothly next depends on the enthusiasm of market participants for 'buying, buying, buying'!
Will Bitcoin continue to fall?
If BTC fails to break through the 'difficult point' of $106,200 smoothly, it may continue to move down. The first support point is around $104,200, and further down is the 'safety line' of $103,500.
If it drops more sharply, the next support may be around $102,500, and further down there is $101,200. If Bitcoin really falls below the major level of $100,000, it may trigger a strong downward trend.
How does the technical aspect look?
The hourly MACD shows that although selling pressure is still present, its intensity has weakened.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently below 50, indicating that Bitcoin is weak in the short term.
Key support levels are concentrated at $104,200 and $103,500.
Key resistance levels are at $105,500 and $106,200.
In simple terms, Bitcoin is now like at a 'crossroads.' If it doesn't break through the resistance, it may continue to explore downwards; if it holds the support, there is still an opportunity for a rebound. For novice investors, don't forget to manage risks reasonably!
