#GENIUSActPass

Here’s the latest on Fed rate cut expectations ahead of the June 17‑18 FOMC meeting:

Most analysts and the CME FedWatch Tool (99.9% odds) predict that the Fed will hold rates steady at 4.25–4.50% this week . The Fed's dot‑plot from its March projections still indicated potentially two rate cuts in 2025, but recent economic uncertainties—tariffs, Middle East tensions, and persistent inflation—have dampened the outlook. Now, markets foresee possibly just one cut this year, likely in September, with a slim chance of one as early as July .

Key factors tempering optimism include:

Trade and geopolitical uncertainty (tariffs, oil price volatility) pushing the Fed to adopt a more cautious, or even hawkish, stance .

Strength in inflation metrics and labor market data, keeping inflation around 2.7–2.8%, above target .

Market instruments now imply cut probabilities: ~12.5% chance of July cut, ~62% for September .

Bottom line: Expect a pause this week. The first meaningful rate cut is likely delayed to September 2025, with the possibility of only one or two cuts later in the year.