The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to keep the rate unchanged (4.25%–4.50%) tomorrow, June 18. The focus is on updated rate forecasts (dot plot). Previously, two cuts were expected in 2025, but due to the impact of Trump's tariffs, inflation risks, and tensions in the Middle East, the market is preparing for one or possibly no cuts. The first step down may only be possible in the fall. Jerome Powell's comments on the labor market and oil prices will also be significant for investors. The market expects restrained rhetoric.
