#FOMCMeeting

Expected Decision & Rate Outlook

No rate change: The Fed is widely expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, with a nearly 100% probability of holding steady at this meeting .

**“Wait-and-see” approach**: Policymakers continue exercising caution, given uncertain inflation effects from tariffs and regional geopolitical risks impacting oil prices and inflation dynamics .

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📉 Dot Plot & 2025 Forecasts

Fewer rate cuts projected: The updated Summary of Economic Projections (“dot plot”) will likely reflect a downward adjustment—possibly from two rate cuts to just one in 2025 .

Market views: Traders have already priced in only a 60% chance of a rate cut by September, with July cuts seen as unlikely (just 12–15% odds) .

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🌍 Key Drivers & Risks

1. Tariff uncertainty: The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policy continue to cast a shadow on inflation, complicating the Fed’s outlook .

2. Geopolitical shocks & oil prices: Rising volatility from Middle East tensions is pushing oil prices upward, which could translate to renewed inflation pressures .

3. Labor market and inflation stable: Despite slower job growth, unemployment remains low (~4.2%) and inflation is near target (~2%), giving the Fed space to continue data‑dependent policy .