the lowdown on the June 17–18, 2025 FOMC meeting:
📌 Key Outcomes
Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve held its federal funds target range steady at 4.25%–4.50%—marking the third consecutive pause since December 2024 .
Market Expectations & Fed Rationale
Markets priced in a near-certain (99.9%) probability of no rate change, supported by a cautious Fed stance amid inflation uncertainty, geopolitical risks (Israel–Iran tensions), tariffs, and weak May retail sales and industrial production .
Dot Plot & Future Cuts
Alongside the rate decision, the Fed released its updated “dot‑plot,” showing fewer cuts anticipated in 2025. July’s meeting was reaffirmed as a hold; most projections point to only one cut later this year, possibly in September .
Current Economic Backdrop
● Inflation: Core CPI and PPI are modestly elevated (core inflation ~2.8–2.9%) .
● Labor Market: Solid but showing slight softening—employment growth slowed in May, jobless claims edged up .
● Geopolitical / Tariff Risks: Ongoing tensions and trade uncertainties continue to influence the Fed’s cautious approach .
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🧭 Watch for Powell’s Press Conference
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT on June 18, right after the policy statement release at 2 p.m. EDT . Analysts will focus on:
How he frames future rate‑cut timing (probable hints toward autumn).
Signals around core inflation dynamics and trade/fiscal policy risks.
Any internal divergence—i.e., whether policy was unanimous or if some members dissent (like in May they were unanimous) .
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🔍 What It Means
For investors & markets: The Fed’s hold is unsurprising. The dot‑plot pressure for a cut later may signal September as the next move, barring clearer inflation slowdown.
For consumers: High rates mean ongoing pressures on borrowing (credit cards, mortgages), though savers still enjoy elevated yields .
For the economy: The Fed continues balancing between cooling inflation and supporting the labor market amid trade tension
