#FOMCMeeting
Here’s the latest on the June 17–18 FOMC meeting:
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🔍 What’s Expected & Why It Matters
1. **No rate change anticipated:**
The Fed is almost certain to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25–4.50%, where it's been since December—consensus across analysts and markets is near 100% .
2. **Geopolitical & tariff risks a factor:**
Escalating tensions in the Middle East (Israel–Iran) have spiked oil prices, while Trump’s tariff pressure adds inflationary uncertainty—both reinforcing the Fed’s cautious “wait-and-see” stance .
3. **Economic data pointing downward:**
May retail sales and industrial output are showing signs of weakness, creating a slower-growth backdrop .
4. **Dot‑plot and projections under the spotlight:**
The Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections (released with the policy statement) is expected to reflect slower growth, modestly higher inflation, and potentially fewer cuts in 2025—perhaps only one, rather than two .
5. **Powell’s press conference signals tone shift:**
Chair Powell will appear on Wednesday. Markets will be listening closely for any shift in tone—especially signals of caution or a hawkish stance on future cuts .
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🗓️ Timeline
June 17 (Tuesday): FOMC meeting begins.
**June 18 (Wednesday):**
2:00 p.m. EDT: Policy statement & updated forecasts.
~2:30 p.m. EDT: Powell’s press briefing.
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✅ Summary
Stay tuned: No rate move expected, but guidance on future cuts will be key.
Risks remain: Tariffs and geopolitical issues may delay easing.
Market view: First cut could come as late as September, though some see October or beyond .