šļø What Was at Stake
The Fed was widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.25āÆ%ā4.50āÆ%, maintaining its stance amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty .
Key economic indicatorsāincluding cooler inflation readings (May CPI/PPI) and solid, though not booming, labor-market dataāsupported a āwait-and-seeā approach .
Tariff-driven inflation, trade tensions, and Middle East-related oil price volatility added caution to the decision .
š Highlights from Market and Analyst Expectations
91āÆ% probability of no rate move in June, based on CME FedWatch .
Updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) expected: slower GDP growth forecasts (~1ā1.2āÆ%), higher inflation (~3āÆ% core PCE in 2025), modest upward revision to unemployment (~4.4ā4.5āÆ%) .
FOMC dot-plot likely to signal 1ā3 quarter-point cuts later in 2025, potentially starting around July or September, depending on incoming data
āļø Independence vs. Political Pressure
President Trump renewed calls for steep rate cutsāsome analysts warned the Fed might push back to preserve its independence .
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to emphasize data-driven decisions and resist political influence during his post-meeting press conference .
š What to Watch Next
The June 18 policy statement and Powellās press conference at ~2āÆpm ET will offer direct insight into the Fedās outlook and future plans.
Look closely at the updated SEP and dot-plot for signals on the pace and timing of future rate cuts.
Economic reports to monitor:
Retail sales (released Tuesday, June 17)
June labor data
Trade/tariff updates and oil price trends
In summary, the FOMC met at a pivotal momentābalancing disinflation progress against economic-headwind risks. Holding rates steady now seems prudent, but markets are eagerly awaiting shifts in forward guidance and SEP projections to clarify the Fedās timing on future easing$BTC
