Hello crypto community 👋 Today I want to share my vision on AAVE. I've been holding the coin since August 2024 with an average entry price of around $100.
AAVE has been in correction for a long time now — since May 2021, after the formation of wave A of the triangle. Below, I'll briefly cover all the main waves. Wave 1 was complex and controversial. I struggled to understand where exactly subwave 1 starts, but the strong impulse at entry and the change in market structure confirm the start from this point. Subwave 3 is the most pronounced. After it comes a narrowing range in the form of a triangle and the final surge of wave 5. From subwaves 3, 5, and subwaves B in wave 2, a "Head and Shoulders" pattern was formed. Wave 2 is a classic correction. Wave A is an impulse made up of 5 smaller subwaves, B is likely a zigzag or double zigzag, C is an impulse almost equal in length to wave A. Fibonacci confirms the structure — wave C is clearly at level 1 on the grid.
Wave 3 was a rocket 🚀 A real impulse when all the major players caught AAVE and hype around DeFi began. Within wave 3 — a clear five-wave structure (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5), subwave (3) — the most powerful, corrections between (2) and (4) were shallow. The growth started from $2–3, peak — around $710. This is a textbook wave 3: powerful impulse, market confidence, and fundamentals. Wave 4 is a triangle. After the crazy growth in wave 3, the market didn’t go into a deep correction but entered a symmetric triangle — a classic figure of expectation before the final upward move.
Right now, we are most likely in wave D, and it has clearly retraced to 0.618 of wave B — technically beautiful. If the current peak was D — then ahead lies wave E down, the expected target for it is around $146. If the price goes below this level, there is a chance that the current movement is only wave C, and the triangle is not yet complete. Then waves D and E will still be ahead. Is it worth shorting now? In my opinion — not the best idea. Stop — behind the high of wave D, take — $146, risk/reward = 1.51, and that is too low a ratio to enter such a deal. Better to observe and enter in a phase where the potential will be higher and the risk more reasonable. The whole structure still looks correct. If wave 4 is indeed complete, the final fifth is ahead — and this might be the last opportunity to get the coin at a tasty price!
