#FOMCMeeting Here’s the latest on the FOMC meeting taking place June 17–18, 2025:
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🔍 What’s Happening
The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, where they’ve remained since December 2024 .
The key driver? Uncertainty from geopolitical risks (escalating Israel–Iran tensions), recent tariff policy, and subdued economic data—notably weak retail sales and industrial output in May .
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🔮 What to Watch
1. **Summary of Economic Projections ("dot plot")**
Likely to show slower growth and higher inflation than March.
Markets expect only one rate cut in 2025, possibly in September .
2. Fed’s Guidance & Press Conference
Jerome Powell will speak Wednesday at 2:30 pm ET, offering insights into policy direction .
3. Global Risks & Inflation
Expectations are that tariffs and conflict could keep inflation sticky, delaying any easing moves .
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📊 Market Expectations
A Reuters poll of economists finds:
Cut Timing Percentage
Next cut in September 2025 55%
No cut until Q4 or later 42%
CME FedWatch confirms high odds of a June hold, with rate cuts concentrated in late 2025 .
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🧭 Overview
Decision: Maintain 4.25–4.50% range.
New guidance: Likely hint at one rate cut later this year.
Signals to tune into: Updated dot plot and Powell’s press conference remarks.
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Let me know if you'd like a deeper dive into the economic projections, press conference takeaways, or how this impacts investments, mortgage rates, etc.