#FOMCMeeting Rate Decision & Policy Outlook**

- **No Change Expected**: The Fed is universally projected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at **4.25%–4.50%**, unchanged since December 2024. This marks the seventh consecutive "hold" amid persistent inflation risks and economic uncertainty .

- **Key Drivers**:

- **Tariff Impacts**: New tariffs under the Trump administration threaten to reignite inflation, making premature rate cuts risky. Fed officials emphasize a "wait-and-see" approach until tariff effects materialize .

- **Data Trends**: Recent cooling in inflation (May CPI) and steady labor markets support pausing, but officials remain vigilant for signs of economic stress .