#FOMCMeeting The crisis in the Middle East complicates the Fed meeting

The FOMC meets again this week with a general uncertainty no less than last month. It is true that the trade confrontation has given way to negotiations, although their outcome remains uncertain, but at the same time, the exacerbation of tensions in the Middle East casts doubt on what had been one of the few favorable factors for the global economy in recent times: the fall in oil prices. There are two parameters we will closely monitor to assess the risk of a persistent oil crisis: the position of Gulf countries — and in particular Saudi Arabia — regarding oil supply, and the likelihood of oil flow being interrupted through the Strait of Hormuz. It is still early, but overall, the risk appears manageable.