As Bitcoin ($BTC ) trades around $105,614, recovering slightly after recent market turbulence, a prominent on-chain analyst has issued a stark warning: the current cycle top may already be in. According to their assessment, altcoins could be on the verge of a catastrophic -95% correction if macro and market sentiment deteriorate further.


This forecast comes amid a wave of optimism following positive headlines such as Metaplanet’s BTC purchase and fresh momentum around Binance’s Spark airdrop. However, the analyst argues that historical patterns, combined with current network activity, suggest a dangerous period of distribution and over-leverage—similar to what followed cycle tops in 2017 and 2021.


Bitcoin's Current Position


Bitcoin has dropped 1.12% on the day, trading below key short-term support levels. While the broader crypto market attempts to stabilize, the analyst notes that:



  • Whale accumulation is slowing


  • Exchange inflows are rising


  • Long-term holder activity is signaling distribution


These signs, paired with weakening momentum on higher timeframes, suggest the bull market may be nearing exhaustion—if not already topped.


Altcoin Outlook: “95% Risk Isn’t Exaggerated”


The warning is more severe for altcoins. The analyst suggests that many lower-cap and meme-based projects could face declines of 90–95%, similar to previous cycle endings. The logic follows a familiar pattern: as Bitcoin dominance rises and liquidity drains from smaller tokens, altcoins tend to underperform or collapse outright.


What to Watch This Week



  • BTC Key Support Zones: $104,000 and $101,500


  • Dominance Shift: Rising $BTC dominance often precedes altcoin sell-offs


  • Macro Sentiment: Watch for shifts post-FOMC or unexpected ETF-related headlines


  • Investor Strategy: Rotation into $BTC and stablecoins is accelerating


Conclusion


While short-term volatility remains likely, this on-chain warning serves as a critical reminder: bull markets don’t last forever, and altcoins carry extreme downside risk when sentiment turns.


Traders and investors should stay alert and manage exposure carefully—especially in speculative positions.

#SparkBinanceHODLerAirdrop #MetaplanetBTCPurchase #SaylorBTCPurchase