UniQuant Today's BTC Market Analysis

June 17, 2025

1. Macroeconomic Drivers and Market Sentiment

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to pressure “risk assets,” leading to overall cautious market sentiment, with BTC experiencing a short-term pullback of about 0.7% to around $106,120.

2. Liquidation Drivers and Fund Flow Situation

Although there has not been large-scale liquidation, the maximum pain point for options is concentrated around $107k–$108k, the latter still being a latent point for bull-bear conversion. On the level, institutional funds continue to flow in, with a net inflow of nearly $410 million into ETFs, indicating that prices are supported by large capital. On the other hand, the correlation between stocks and BTC is about 0.75–0.87; if the U.S. stock market pulls back, it could suppress BTC volatility risks.

3. Technical Signals Weaken

FXStreet points out that BTC has fallen again after the recent high rebound, currently trading in a range around $106k, showing a short-term downward tendency. Today's forecast shows RSI and MACD in a weak state, with the 30-minute RSI at only 42.5, and MACD having crossed and weakened. The price is close to the VWAP moving average, with fund momentum declining, indicating clear short-term pressure.

Key Price Levels Focus

Resistance Zone: $108K–$109K has been repeatedly pressured and not broken, currently attempting to test again but appearing weak; if the highs are unsuccessful, it would lean more towards bearish.

Support Zone: $105.5K–$106K is the short-term support; if breached, the next targets will point to $104K–$103K; if it continues to fall below, it is necessary to focus on the psychological level of $100K to assess the medium-term trend.