📉 Polymarket Odds Fall Below 50%
Traders have scaled back expectations of a U.S. military strike against Iran before July. On decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, odds dropped to 46%, a significant decline from the overnight high of 66.9%. The shift comes amid emerging reports that former President Donald Trump’s team is pursuing diplomatic dialogue with Tehran.
🕊️ Diplomacy Over Conflict?
According to Axios, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff may meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi this week. The goal: to explore a potential nuclear deal resolution and de-escalate the Israel-Iran conflict. While the Trump administration hasn’t officially confirmed the meeting, the possibility has sparked hope for a non-military path forward.
🔥 Escalation and Market Reaction
Just days earlier, tensions spiked after Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, prompting retaliation from Tehran. The developments triggered a sharp drop in Bitcoin, which fell to $102,750 in a risk-off move alongside weakness in U.S. equities and a rise in the Japanese yen. BTC has since recovered to around $BTC
106,700, although S&P 500 futures remain down 0.7%.
💬 Mixed Signals
Despite diplomatic gestures, rhetoric remains tense. Trump posted on Truth Social, reaffirming that Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons, and urged for the evacuation of Tehran, leaving ambiguity around U.S. intentions.
📊 Final Word
While markets are cautiously optimistic about de-escalation, the situation remains fluid. Polymarket odds reflect this uncertainty, and traders continue to watch both diplomatic and military developments closely.