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📉 The Fed is on pause: the June meeting without surprises, but with a hint of concern

🔍 What you need to know before Wednesday and why the "dots" are more important than the rate

🪙 Interest rate — unchanged

The Federal Reserve System of the USA is likely not to change the rate at the June meeting: 4.25%–4.50% remains with us. The reason is banal — inflation seems to be easing, and the labor market is still breathing. So the Fed can afford to wait.

📉 The rate is not the main intrigue. The main thing is the "dots"

On Wednesday, the market will be looking not so much at the rate as at the updated dot plot — the forecast map from the Fed members themselves. In the spring, they still hoped for 2 rate cuts in 2025, but since then much has changed:

— Trump's tariffs,

— stuck inflation,

— worsening sentiment in the economy.

Now the market is ready to accept even one cut as a gift. And if there are many dots with zeros — we expect a "hawkish storm" in the markets.

📦 The economy is holding up for now, but…

CPI — softer, labor market — healthy, but:

• consumers are anxious,

• business is cautious,

• tariffs have not yet hit — but are already on the way.

The Fed will wait for when the "pain manifests" in the statistics.