Markets are once again focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for this evening. The consensus expectation is that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 5.25–5.50%, which is considered the base case. However, the spotlight will be on Jerome Powell’s comments and the updated economic projections.
Investors continue to price in at least one rate cut before the end of the year. Any shift toward a more hawkish tone or an upward revision in inflation forecasts could trigger a short-term pullback in both equities and crypto.
If the Fed maintains a cautious but neutral stance, markets are likely to respond calmly. Still, overly optimistic expectations might backfire: even neutral messaging could lead to profit-taking and disappointment.
The most probable outcome is a rate pause accompanied by careful commentary. All eyes will be on the details that may shape market sentiment heading into the summer.