#FOMCMeeting Update: June 17–18, 2025 🇺🇸
All eyes on the Fed as the Federal Reserve wraps up its June policy meeting.
🔹 Key Takeaways:
Rates Held Firm: The Fed kept the federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50%, maintaining a cautious "wait-and-see" stance amid mixed indicators .
Inflation Cooling—but Tariff Watch On: Both CPI and PPI came in softer than expected, yet unresolved tariff policies—especially under Trump—and global volatility (e.g. Israel–Iran tensions) keep caution elevated .
Labor Market Outlook: Unemployment steady at ~4.2%, but concerns are emerging—higher jobless claims & stagnant wage growth hint at a softer labor tone .
Dot Plot Signal: The updated Summary of Economic Projections likely shows the Fed forecasting 1–2 rate cuts in 2025, perhaps kicking off in September, with full cuts possibly pushed into 2026 .
🔹 Why It Matters:
Markets dived into Fed futures expecting a late-2025 easing cycle—September now appears most probable .
Consumers & Businesses: If inflation stays contained and labor weakens, the Fed may pivot toward easing—so one to two 25 bp cuts could come later this year.
Geopolitical & Tariff Factors: With regulatory and trade uncertainties unresolved, the Fed is treading carefully—taking global risks into full account.
