#FOMCMeeting

🧭 What Was the Outcome?

Rate Hold Confirmed: The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, marking the third straight pause. Policy uncertainty tied to tariffs and geopolitical risks influenced their caution .

**"Wait-and-See" Mandate**: The Fed emphasized its strategy of monitoring key factors—tariffs, inflation, labor market—to maintain flexibility and avoid premature easing .

Summary of Economic Projections (SEP): Released alongside the policy statement, the dot plot showed a median projection of one rate cut expected later in 2025, down from two cuts in March .

🚦 Why Hold Rates Now?

1. Tariff-Driven Inflation Risk

Rising U.S. tariffs and uncertainty around international trade pose upside pressure on inflation. The Fed seems intent on assessing the real effects before acting .

2. Geopolitical Oil Shock

Conflicts in the Middle East—esp. Israel–Iran—spiked oil prices (~+13%), fueling inflation expectations and complicating timing for monetary easing .

3. Labor Market Resilience

Unemployment remains around 4.2%, with decent job growth, though some indicators (jobless claims, wage stagnation) hint at softening .

4. Data Still Cooling Gradually

Recent CPI and PPI prints were softer than anticipated, suggesting inflation is under control but tariffs haven’t yet fully fed through

🗓️ What Comes Next?

Potential Rate Cut Window: SEP median shows one cut in 2025, though it may not come until September onward, depending on evolving conditions .

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