Arthur Hayes points out that the main reason for the difficulty in the rise of altcoins is the lack of market fit and protocol income redistribution mechanisms, with overvalued and low liquidity VC tokens flooding the market. He predicts that when Bitcoin's market share reaches 65%, altcoins may experience a bullish trend, but only projects with real user payments, resistance to VC selling pressure, and income dividends (such as ETH/GMX) will survive.

Analysis by Qinqi

VC Token Trap: Currently, $12 billion in unlocked selling pressure is impacting the market, with 90% of project income not being redistributed to token holders;

Survival Criteria: Protocols must redistribute >30% of income to users (like GMX with an annualized 15%), and FDV/circulating value ratio <3 times (like Monad with only 10% circulating);

Rotation Opportunity: Bitcoin breaking $110,000 and a 65% market share will trigger altcoin season (referencing the patterns of 2021);

Allocation Priority: ETH (valuation/TVL 1.6) has greater potential due to cash flow advantages compared to SOL (8.2), avoiding “dinosaur coins” with income below $500,000 for two consecutive quarters.