Emergency Notice! ETH Stabilizes After Huge Shock, Core Support Levels Battle Intensifies
1. Technical Analysis: Long Lower Shadow Releases Three Major Bottom Signals
Accurate Rebound to Key Level: After a sharp drop to 2523 in the morning, a violent rebound occurred, with the MA30 moving average (2550) and the lower Bollinger Band (2560) forming dual support, confirming the bullish defense strength with a long lower shadow.
Volume Anomaly: Increased volume during the drop (hourly trading volume surged by 300%), reduced volume during the rebound (not breaking the previous high), consistent with the main force's washout characteristics.
Indicator Recovery: 1-hour MACD golden cross diverges, but 4-hour KDJ is overbought (J value > 90), indicating a need for short-term oscillation to digest selling pressure.
Core Observation Point: If it stabilizes above 2580 (the latest dense trading area in the chart), there is hope to attack the resistance at 2620; if it loses 2550, it will retest the previous low at 2520.
2. News-Driven Logic
Regulatory Dynamics: SEC Accelerates ETH Spot ETF Review, Options Volatility Soars by 23%
Ecological Progress:
Kankun Upgrade Progress Reaches 85% (EIP-4844 Activated in Mid-October, Reducing Gas Fees + Increasing Speed)
DeFi Lock-up Amount Net Increased by $120 Million in One Day (Mainly Due to Inflows into Uniswap V3 and AAVE)
3. Key Evidence for Long and Short Battle (Data in Chart)
Order Distribution: 3.68K ETH sell orders accumulated in the 2587-2590 range (Resistance), 5.88K ETH buy orders buried below 2580 (Support)
Large Order Movement: A major buy order of 429K USDT appeared at 10:53 (Pushing Price to Break 2588)
Funding Rate Turns Negative: -0.0010% Indicates Shorts Still Control Short-term Rhythm
Future Market Prediction: 70% Probability of an Upward Break After Oscillation
Bullish Basis:
Monthly EMA30 (2550) Not Broken, Mid-term Upward Trend Intact
Kankun Upgrade + ETF Expectations Form a “Narrative Dual Engine”
Federal Reserve's Rate Hike Probability in September < 10%, Macroeconomic Pressure Eases
Risk Warning:
If 2620 Fails to Break Through After Three Attempts, Beware of Short Sellers Counterattacking to 2480 (Golden Ratio Support Level)
Personal Trading Suggestions
Holders: Hold Assets Above 2580, Stop Loss at 2550
Observers: Breakout Above 2620, Target 2800
Contract Players: Short with Stop Loss of 5 USDT at Resistance, Higher Risk-Reward Ratio for Long at Support
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