When the market falls silent and people complain that the 'imitation season' has yet to arrive, we may be standing at the starting point of a new cycle, just that most people have not yet realized it. Many attribute the market's weakness to a 'lack of new narratives,' but this is a profound misunderstanding. The real bottleneck is not a depletion of imagination, but a drying up of liquidity.
In the second half of 2025, the main theme of the crypto market will be written by two core issues: on the macro level, it is the highly anticipated rate-cut expectations; on the micro level, it is the quietly unfolding new paradigm of 'coin-stock linkage.' The resonance between these two may become the key engine to ignite the next super cycle.
1. There is no shortage of narratives, but a lack of 'water' to amplify these narratives.
The crypto market has fallen silent, and many attribute this to a 'lack of narrative.' This is a profound misunderstanding. Narratives stem from humanity's endless imagination and exist objectively at all times. From AI + Crypto to DePIN, from re-staking to modularization, the brewing of new concepts has never ceased.
The problem is not the absence of stories, but the lack of sufficient funds to tell and amplify these stories. The high interest rate environment is fundamentally suppressing all desires and innovations. I often emphasize a metaphor: innovation is the splash in water when liquidity is abundant; if there is no water, how can there be splashes?
World-class business myths have almost all been born in the fertile ground of low interest rates:
Tesla: Listed in 2010, its 'electric vehicle' narrative lay dormant for nearly a decade. Only at the end of 2019, when the Federal Reserve began its easing cycle and global liquidity surged in 2020, did its stock price soar, pushing an industry narrative to the global peak.
Artificial meat (Beyond Meat), shared office (WeWork): These concepts have also existed for a long time, but it was only with the boost of hot money in 2020 that they inflated into huge business bubbles, attracting massive funds.
The path for a narrative to move from niche to world-class is very clear:
Low interest environment → Lower capital costs → Easier project financing → Acquiring funds to inflate the bubble → Creating a profit effect to attract the public → Expanding the narrative level.
Many concepts in the crypto space currently have the potential to become top-tier narratives. They are like Tesla in 2010 or Ethereum, which was only $80 in 2019, lurking in silence, waiting for the macro downpour.
So, when will the water come?
According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to potentially start a rate-cutting cycle as early as September 2025.
Rate cuts are the key to opening the capital faucet. Once the easing cycle is confirmed, capital that has been suppressed by high interest rates will pour out, seeking the most imaginative asset valleys.
2. Paradigm shift: The new battlefield of the 'imitation season' is in the U.S. stock market.
When the macro faucet is about to be turned on, where should we direct our gaze?
I have detailed this viewpoint in my previous articles: the imitation season has arrived! However, it is happening in the U.S. stock market, where coin-stock linkage is the new imitation season.
If you are still desperately searching for the next hundredfold altcoin on-chain, you may have lost your direction. Because this round, the fiercest and most violent 'imitation market' is not happening on-chain but in the U.S. stock market.
'Coin-stock linkage' is the wealth code currently being verified.
The core contradiction in the on-chain world is: there are countless projects, but liquidity is extremely dispersed. Tens of thousands of projects compete for limited existing funds, resulting in serious internal competition where no one can be satisfied. In contrast, the logic in the U.S. stock market is simple and brutal: few targets, concentrated funds, and a surge in prices.
A project that may go unnoticed when doing protocols and ecosystems on-chain can immediately receive simple, direct, and even several times inflated valuations if the same story is packaged into a U.S. publicly listed company.
This is not a guess but a fact that is currently unfolding:
SharpLink Gaming (SBET): After announcing financing to purchase ETH, its stock price increased tenfold in a week.
Upexi Inc. (UPXI): Just the news of a strategic partnership related to the Solana ecosystem caused its stock price to surge more than six times in a single day.
Recently, even Son's Tron is about to land in the U.S. stock market.
Why has the U.S. stock market become the new main battlefield for the 'imitation season'? There are three reasons:
Scarcity of targets leads to a strong explosive effect.
There are fewer than 50 companies in the U.S. stock market that are strongly correlated with cryptocurrency, while on-chain tokens have exceeded 40 million. Under the same narrative and funding drive, the scarcity of U.S. stocks clearly has more explosive potential.High thresholds create a natural moat.
The threshold for issuing tokens in the crypto space is extremely low, leading to bad coins driving out good ones. In contrast, the financial, auditing, and compliance requirements for listed companies in the U.S. serve as a natural filter, ensuring the 'scarcity' and minimum quality of targets, avoiding vicious competition.Regulation is relatively transparent, becoming a 'safe harbor' for retail investors.
Compared to the endless Rug Pulls and project collapses on-chain, the mature regulatory system of the U.S. stock market provides stronger protection for retail investors. For those tired of on-chain scams, this is an alternative season of imitation that can be 'bought with closed eyes.'
Conclusion: Capture the pulse of the new cycle.
It’s not that the imitation season hasn’t arrived, but that its main battlefield has shifted.
When the on-chain world sinks into stagnant games due to liquidity depletion, the off-chain U.S. stock market is becoming a new favorite of capital due to its 'target scarcity' and 'compliance narrative.' This is not the end of the crypto world, but rather the beginning of its evolution and expansion.
The next round of the crypto supercycle will no longer be driven by single-chain innovations but will be co-written by macro 'rate cuts and liquidity' and micro 'coin-stock linkage.'
The former is the water that is about to arrive, and the latter is the wave that rises first. Understanding these two points is essential to truly grasp the pulse of the second half of 2025 and the future.
