The trends for risk markets this week (starting June 16, 2025) are influenced by a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical issues, and monetary policy decisions, based on the available information. Here is a concise analysis of the expected scenario:

Volatility due to Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions: The Fed's interest rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday (June 18), is the main focus for investors. Recent posts on X highlight that "Super Wednesday" with Jerome Powell's speech may generate volatility in stock markets, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets. The expectation is that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance, with interest rate cuts delayed until the end of the year, due to persistent inflation in the U.S. (estimated at 3.3% annually). This could pressure risk assets, such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, especially if Powell reinforces a hawkish tone.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East: The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to impact global risk sentiment. Last Friday (June 13), global stock markets fell, with investors seeking safe assets like gold and the dollar. Although geopolitical risk eased somewhat at the beginning of the week, any new escalation could keep risk aversion high, negatively affecting cryptocurrencies and stocks.

Mixed market sentiment: Recent consumer sentiment data in the U.S. showed improvement, which spurred a "risk-on" movement at the beginning of the week, particularly in technology stocks (led by companies like AMD) and cryptocurrencies. However, defensive sectors, such as health and utilities, are declining, indicating that optimism is selective. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (quoted at US$ 106 thousand) and Ethereum (US$ 2.5 thousand) may benefit from a favorable risk environment, but are sensitive to external shocks.