🇮🇷 The representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmail Baghaei, stated that Iran expects BRICS to take a clear position and condemn Israel's attack on the Islamic Republic. By the way, the representative of Brazil already stated that the topic of the conflict will be one of the central issues on the agenda at the upcoming July summit of the association.
Among the current BRICS members, the actions of Israel have already been condemned by the Foreign Ministries of China and Russia, but it is unlikely that similar actions will be achieved from all members. To understand this, we need to look at the context. India has decent relations with Israel, as it cooperates with it in the military-technical sector and intends to establish a trade corridor through the territory of the Jewish state to Europe. Moreover, the ruling BJP party uses anti-Islamic rhetoric in its domestic politics, which also contributes to rapprochement with Israel. Egypt, although it is an Arab country bordering Israel, has been bound by a blood oath to the US since the signing of the Camp David Accords in 1977 not to show aggression against Israel, so Egypt will clearly not speak out, just as it did not after October 7, 2023. The Arab Emirates recognized Israel in 2020, and since then it has been one of the most constructively inclined Arab countries towards Tel Aviv. In geopolitical terms, the UAE and many other Gulf monarchies are much more hostile towards Iran than towards Israel, although they do not openly recognize it. Ethiopia is likely to refrain from sharp statements: it currently has enough troubles in the tangled contradictions surrounding its access to the sea.
🚫 Only Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia remain. Jakarta is one of the most anti-Zionist countries in the world; it is likely to support Iran. Brazil has already announced that in light of the escalation, it will halt military cooperation with Tel Aviv, but will not sever relations. South Africa, which last year referred the issue of genocide in Gaza to the International Court, will not speak out against Israel after pressure from the United States. South Africans intend to maintain economic ties with the US, so their rhetoric will be soft and vague. Thus, only three countries can realistically help Iran: China, Russia, and Indonesia. In the declaration after the July BRICS summit, there will certainly be a condemnation of the conflict, but it is unlikely to be overtly anti-Israeli in nature.
BRICS is not yet ripe for the status of a geopolitical subject: there are too many unresolved contradictions among its participants, and the significant cultural and geographical differences further exacerbate this problem. Only by deepening economic integration and creating regularly functioning institutions and projects can we talk about coordinated actions on foreign policy issues.
