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Key week for the markets: Interest rate decisions and economic projections in focus

This week, investors in financial markets, especially in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, are paying close attention to macroeconomic events that could define global trends. Monetary policy decisions in Japan and the U.S., along with key economic indicators, will be crucial for anticipating movements in risk assets. Below is a summary of the events and their possible impact in more accessible language focused on retail investors.

🔴Tuesday - Interest rate decision in Japan:

Japan is likely to keep its interest rate at 0.50%.

Investors fear that signals of future rate hikes will force the selling of assets to cover yen loans, negatively affecting the markets.

🔴Wednesday - Projections and rates in the U.S.:

The Federal Reserve (FED) should keep its rate at 4.50%.

The most important aspect will be the economic projections: markets expect two rate cuts this year and the end of quantitative tightening (QT). This would boost assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.

🔴Friday - Philadelphia Manufacturing Index:

An improvement from -4.0 to -1.2 is expected, indicating a more robust economy and reducing concerns about a recession.

Possible scenarios:

Best case: Japan rules out rate hikes, the FED projects cuts, and ends QT, encouraging investment in risk assets.

Worst case: The FED signals that inflation, driven by oil, will prevent rate cuts, which could lead to massive selling in the markets.

Why it matters:

Low rates facilitate access to capital, boosting investments in stocks and cryptocurrencies. Any signal of monetary tightening could generate volatility, while expansive policies would be a bullish catalyst for the markets. Investors should pay attention to central bank statements to adjust their strategies.