Key narratives that today anchor projections for Bitcoin until December 2026
The discussion revolves around three macro scenarios (conservative, base, optimistic) that unfold from well-mapped factors: global liquidity, flow to ETFs, halving of 2024, regulations, and corporate adoption.
The enormous range (≈3×) reveals that price depends less on on-chain mathematics and more on monetary policy, capital flow, and regulatory headlines.
Catalysts that could push BTC in the optimistic direction
Spot ETFs continue to drain supply - If the average fundraising of ~US$ 250 million/day from 2025 is maintained until 2026, they drain ~180,000 BTC/year, almost double the post-halving issuance. - The entry of pension funds and sovereign funds would give another leg up if regulation permits.
Corporate treasuries in a herd effect - MicroStrategy (582k BTC), MetaPlanet (10k BTC), and possibly the “Trump TMTG Treasury” (~25k BTC) launch the narrative of “bitcoin as corporate cash.” - If 5 S&P 500 companies allocate 5% of their cash, they already add demand equivalent to several months of new issuance.
Macro environment loosening - Reversal of the interest cycle in the US/EU in 2026 reduces the premium of fixed income → investors return to activate risk.
Layer 2 (Lightning and similar) + ordinals - On-chain fees remain low thanks to second layers; non-speculative usage (remittances, micropayments) expands the base of hodlers.
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