$BTC QCP Capital stated in its latest market view that despite the escalating tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin (BTC) has not experienced a panic sell-off. After a brief pullback influenced by news from Iran and Israel last Friday, BTC rebounded from $102,800 to $107,000, with overall market sentiment stabilizing. QCP pointed out that BTC's price resilience is supported by continued institutional accumulation, including 'buying the dip' actions from companies like Metaplanet and Strategy, as well as BTC spot ETFs recording net inflows for seven consecutive weeks. In comparison to last April, when a similar situation led to a drop of more than 8%, this time BTC has only declined by about 3% and has maintained the crucial psychological level of $100,000, demonstrating enhanced market resilience. Additionally, the implied volatility of BTC short-term options remains below 40, the VIX index is around 20, and U.S. Treasuries along with some Asian sovereign bonds continue to attract capital inflows, indicating that the overall market has not fully entered risk-off mode. However, QCP also cautioned that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked due to the situation in Iran, or if the U.S. directly intervenes in the conflict, it could trigger a surge in oil prices and disrupt global risk assets. Yet, structurally, this macro misalignment and geopolitical turbulence may continue to drive BTC's appeal as a 'safe asset'.
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