Key Economic Events ✍️
(June 16–20, 2025)
This week promises to be relatively calm, but the Fed decision and press conference on Wednesday may introduce volatility, so be careful and attentive.😉
Tuesday, June 17
• 15:30 MSK — Core Retail Sales Index (m/m, May)
► Expectation: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
Shows growth in sales excluding autos. Above forecast – supports consumer demand, below – a sign of slowing.
• 15:30 MSK — Retail Sales Volume (m/m, May)
► Expectation: -0.6% | Previous: 0.1%
Assesses the change in total retail sales. Below forecast – decrease in activity, above – acceleration in spending.
⚠️ Wednesday, June 18 ⚠️
• 15:30 MSK — Initial Jobless Claims
► Previous: 248K
Reflects the state of the labor market. Fewer claims – positive, increase – signal of deterioration.
• 🔥21:00 MSK — Fed Rate Decision 🔥
► Expectation: 4.50% | Previous: 4.50%
What will start shaking either the market or Trump 😁
The opinion on the rate changes so quickly that it's hard to keep track: just recently, they were pricing in an 85% chance of a cut, and now they are again expecting a pause.
• 🔥21:30 MSK — FOMC Press Conference 🔥
Any new information or tone of the speech may provoke sharp fluctuations.
Thursday, June 19
• All day — Holiday (Juneteenth, USA)
Liquidity is reduced, trading volume is limited.🤷♂️
• 15:30 MSK — Initial Jobless Claims
► Previous: 248K
The re-publication will show whether the dynamics have solidified after the Fed's decision.
