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The volatility signal relies on the "MACD" related to the ranges of standard deviation.
June 16, 2025, 7:34 AM
Price charts (CoinDesk Archive)
What you need to know
:
Bitcoin price volatility is likely to increase soon, which could lead to a price rise.
The gap between Bollinger ranges, a key volatility indicator, is expected to widen as the MACD indicator turns positive.
Historical data shows that positive MACD crossovers often precede major Bitcoin price surges.
This is a daily technical analysis provided by CoinDesk analyst and certified market technician Omkar Godbole.
A leading indicator suggests that Bitcoin
Bitcoin
$106,713.62
may become more volatile soon, potentially leading to the next phase of the cryptocurrency's surge.
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This indicator is based on the gap between Bollinger ranges, which are volatility bands located two standard deviations above and below the simple moving average of the cryptocurrency's price over 20 weeks.
When the gap widens, it indicates that the market is more active and volatile - a phenomenon historically observed before major surges in Bitcoin's price. Conversely, when the gap narrows, it indicates reduced activity.
The gap, also known as the Bollinger range spread, may soon widen in a positive signal for bulls, as the MACD indicator chart related to the gap itself has turned positive.
Using the spread between Bollinger ranges as an input in the MACD chart generates bullish or bearish volatility signals, pinpointing periods of turmoil and calm. Traders typically use this indicator to uncover price trend reversals.
The weekly Bitcoin chart (TradingView/CoinDesk)
The top part displays the weekly open, high, low, and close prices for Bitcoin (in Coordinated Universal Time) in candlestick format. The middle part shows the price spread, or the gap between Bollinger ranges, linking the MACD indicator to the price spread in the bottom part.
The MACD indicator has now flipped to positive, indicating a renewed widening in the price spread or a surge in volatility. By default, volatility is not price-related, meaning that the impending activity could be bullish or bearish.
However, a closer look at the chart above reveals that previous positive MACD crossovers (indicated by vertical lines) have predicted significant rises, including price increases in late 2020 and late 2024.
Let's see if history repeats itself.
