UniQuant Market Analysis

June 16, 2025

Market Situation: Fluctuating with a bullish bias, but upward momentum is insufficient

BTC is currently stable around $106k, despite the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, market sentiment remains resilient, with the overall market capitalization rising approximately 0.87% to $3.31 trillion.

However, in the short term, it remains in a key structural area, characterized by narrow fluctuations between 105k and 106k; if it cannot effectively break through, the short-term outlook leans towards fluctuation or a pullback.

2. Technical Signals: Mixed Long and Short, Structure Unclear

In terms of technical indicators, the 30-minute RSI is about 45, and the MACD has formed a bearish crossover, creating an “ascending wedge” structure, indicating that short-term selling pressure may continue.

The current price is below the 50-day EMA, putting pressure on mid-term support; if the 106k and 105k supports are broken, the target may point to the 104k or even 103k area.

3. Institutional Buying and Miner Dynamics

MicroStrategy continues to enter the market, while some miners reducing positions bring bearish pressure but simultaneously decrease supply.

On-chain data shows that large holders such as AguilaTrades increased their positions by about 2500 BTC (approximately $262 million) early this morning, which may serve as a short-term upward catalyst.

Market Game Theory and Strategy Recommendations

Short-term: Observe the battle between bulls and bears near 106k, using a small position range trading strategy; if a successful breakout occurs, one may attempt to chase long positions.

Mid-term Layout: Wait for the price to pull back to the 103k–105k range and confirm rebound signals before entering in batches; if it breaks below 100k, strict position control is necessary.

Medium to Long-term Trend: If there is a larger scale of capital inflow (such as large-scale net inflow of ETF funds) above 106k, then the mid-term bullish structure will return.