A conflict in the Middle East can have significant effects on the global market, especially if it involves key countries in energy production. Here is a general overview of what usually happens in that scenario:
Price increase: Oil prices usually skyrocket, as the region hosts a large part of the global production (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, etc.).
Volatility in energy markets: Disruptions in supplies or blockades of key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz create fear in the markets.
Global inflation: The increase in crude prices impacts transport, production, and food.
2. Financial markets
Stock market declines: Geopolitical uncertainty leads to declines in global stock markets (S&P 500, FTSE, Nikkei, etc.).
Safe havens on the rise: Assets such as gold, the US dollar, and Treasury bonds, considered safe in times of crisis, increase in value.
3. International trade
Affected trade routes: Possible blockades in the Suez Canal, ports in the Persian Gulf, or air closures affect the flow of goods.
Delays and increased logistics costs: Maritime transport becomes riskier and more expensive.
4. Technology and cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies on the rise: In some cases, Bitcoin and other cryptos may rise as "alternative assets."
Cybersecurity and surveillance: Increased spending on technological defense and digital surveillance, especially in countries indirectly involved.
5. Regional and humanitarian impact
Refugees and humanitarian crisis: Large migratory flows can destabilize neighboring countries and increase international pressure.
Sanctions and blockades: Interventions by powers like the US, Russia, or China can generate sanctions that disrupt global trade flows.
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