***$BTC Fundamental Factors ***
>> *Institutional Adoption* : Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to drive inflows, with ~7% of BTC’s circulating supply expected to be held by ETFs by the end of 2025. Institutional interest from firms like BlackRock and Fidelity is stabilizing prices and reducing volatility.
Companies like MicroStrategy (holding 528,185 BTC as of March 2025) and proposals for a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve under the Trump administration are boosting confidence.
>> *Geopolitical and Macro Risks* : Escalating tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, have introduced volatility, contributing to a recent 3.3% crash and $1.2B in liquidations. BTC’s role as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical turmoil is inconsistent but could drive demand if conditions worsen.
Macro tightening (e.g., interest rate hikes or reduced liquidity) could trigger profit-taking, while anticipated rate cuts in 2025 may increase liquidity and support BTC.
>> *Supply Dynamics* : Post-halving (April 2024), reduced miner rewards are tightening supply, historically a bullish catalyst. Exchange reserves have dropped to 2.4M BTC from 3.1M a year ago, signaling accumulation by long-term holders.
On-chain data (MVRV Z-Score, VDD) indicates accumulation by large holders, with 70% of BTC unmoved for 6+ months, supporting a potential floor near 100,000.
