The conflict between Israel and Iran is one of the most tense and complex points in current Middle Eastern geopolitics, with a history of enmity dating back to the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Recently, tensions have reached new heights with direct mutual attacks.
Current Situation (June 2025):
* Mutual Attacks and Escalation: The situation is marked by airstrikes and intelligence operations. Israel has conducted incursions into Iranian territory, with reports of attacks on 150 sites within Iran, many possibly carried out by special forces. Iran, in turn, has also attacked Israeli territory, including hitting residential areas in cities like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, causing deaths and injuries.
* Iranian Nuclear Threat: Israel's main concern is the Iranian nuclear program. Israel does not tolerate Iran developing nuclear weapons and aims to target nuclear weapons production areas. Iran is reportedly enriching uranium to 60% and has a considerable stockpile, which generates great international apprehension.
* Iranian Air Vulnerability: According to experts, Iran's air defense system has reportedly been sabotaged, leaving the country more vulnerable to attacks. Although Iran has a large army, its ability to directly attack Israel via air is limited, and its missile stock, despite being numerous, is finite.
* Mossad: The Israeli intelligence service, Mossad, has played a crucial role in this conflict, carrying out acts of sabotage and infiltration in Iran.
* Impact on Civilians: Both sides have reported impacts on their civilian populations, with destroyed buildings and casualties.
Conflict History:
The relationship between Iran and Israel has not always been one of enmity. Before the Iranian Revolution of 1979, there was even collaboration between the two countries. However, the rise of the theocratic regime in Iran transformed this relationship.
* Iranian Revolution (1979): This event marked a turning point, transforming Iran into an anti-Israel and pro-Palestine state.
* Support for Hostile Groups to Israel: Iran has built a "ring of fire" around Israel, supporting and funding groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This strategy seeks to weaken Israel and expand Iranian influence in the region.
* Iranian Nuclear Program: Iran's nuclear program is one of the main sources of tension. Israel sees the possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons as an existential threat.
* Recurring Attacks: Over the years, there have been numerous cyberattacks, sabotage, and assassinations of Iranian scientists attributed to Israel, as well as retaliatory attacks by Iran and its regional allies.
Main Actors Involved:
* Israel: Led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, prioritizes the defense of its security and the containment of the Iranian nuclear program. It relies on crucial support from the United States.
* Iran: Led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, seeks to consolidate its regional influence and maintain its nuclear program, which it claims is for peaceful purposes.
* United States: Israel's main ally, provides weapons, intelligence, and has acted in defense of Israeli territory. It is interested in containing the escalation of the conflict but supports Israel's security.
* Iran's Regional Allies: Groups like Hezbollah (Lebanon) and Hamas (Palestine) are part of Iran's strategy and act as proxies in attacks against Israel.
* Russia and China: Have interests in the region and seek to mediate tensions, although Russia maintains strategic support for Iran. China is an important buyer of Iranian oil.
* Other Countries (Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, France): Turkey has acted as a mediator, while other countries like Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have contributed to Israel's defense or are concerned about regional instability.
Consequences of the Conflict:
* Risk of a Broad Regional Conflict: The main concern is that the conflict may escalate into a war of larger proportions in the Middle East, dragging in other powers.
* Global Economic Impact: An escalation could lead to a significant increase in oil prices (potentially to $150 a barrel or more), affecting the global economy and raising fuel and logistics costs in various countries, including Brazil.
* Humanitarian Crisis: High-intensity armed conflicts always result in severe humanitarian crises, with population displacement, deaths, and injuries.
* Geopolitical Destabilization: Tensions in the Middle East affect political stability and international relations on a global level.
* Impact on the Iranian Nuclear Program: Israeli attacks aim to delay or dismantle Iran's nuclear capability, but long-term effectiveness remains uncertain.
The scenario is one of uncertainty, with the international community trying to prevent an even greater escalation and seeking diplomatic solutions, although dialogue is complex and interests are divergent.
