At the APEX 2025 developer summit, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that XRP could support up to 14% of SWIFT's total volume within five years. With the global interbank messaging network handling over $30 trillion in cross-border transactions annually, such a goal implies significant expansion in XRP's utility.

While some dismiss this claim as mere ambition, the post-event analysis has provided robust data models showing that XRP could fulfill that role under suitable conditions.

Conservative liquidity calculations

Crypto expert and commentator Eri (@sentosumosaba) presented a realistic perspective on the amount of XRP needed to handle an annual transaction volume of $4.2 trillion, which constitutes only a small fraction of SWIFT's total, according to cautious assumptions.

Based on a token price of $2.15 and an average transaction cycle of three minutes to manage liquidity, the calculation estimates that 11.15 million XRP could facilitate that volume, constituting only 0.0190% of the total 58.82 billion XRP in circulation.

The key factor supporting this conclusion is the high token velocity. If each XRP is reused every three minutes, it allows for up to 480 bridge transactions per day for each token.

The crucial role of Velocity in XRP pricing

However, this high-frequency assumption is merely theoretical and is rarely reflected in actual market conditions. Another contributor, responding to Eri's model, detailed the reality of using XRP as a bridge asset. If the circular liquidity is slower, for instance, at 100 or even 50 transactions per day, the price of the asset must increase significantly to maintain the same trading capacity.

The given example shows that with only 50 transactions per day, XRP would need to be priced at around $20.64 to handle the same throughput of $4.2 trillion. With 10 transactions per day, the price would need to reach $103.20. This change indicates that a decrease in speed increases demand for each token, creating upward price pressure.

Some experts believe that the pressure from this volume could push the asset price even higher, with one expert recently suggesting that a potential increase of 16,400% to $357 is a conservative estimate.

Can XRP handle this volume?

XRP settles within 3 to 5 seconds, but practical issues such as uneven transaction flow, regulatory delays, and limited fiat conversion hinder effective reuse, forcing liquidity providers to hold additional XRP and reducing actual revenue despite automation.

However, XRP is still significantly faster than SWIFT and similar legacy systems, leading to greater calls for the adoption of this digital asset as an alternative to SWIFT. If XRP supports a significant portion of global payment volume, the necessary price level is less dependent on the speed and efficiency with which each token can circulate through the system. #TrumpBTCTreasury