1. Stage Division (Structural Identification)
- Stage 1: Uptrend (End of 2020 to mid-2021, dominated by high-volume bullish candles, significant price surge, breaking historical highs)
- Stage 2: Downtrend (Mid-2021 to end of 2022, oscillating decline, dominated by bearish candles, continuous low-volume adjustments)
- Stage 3: Consolidation Phase (2023 to mid-2024, low volume, price oscillating, major players accumulating strength)
- Stage 4: Turning Point (End of 2024 to present, high-volume bullish candles breaking through the consolidation area, suspected to be the initial movement of a major uptrend)
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2. Identification and Analysis of Volume Bar Patterns in Each Stage
Stage 1 (Uptrend):
- High Volume Bar: Appeared in May 2021, price reached a high of 793, volume increased significantly, suspected of major players unloading positions.
- Low Volume Bar: Has not appeared.
- Average Volume Bar: Appears several times in the early stages of an uptrend, indicating a temporary balance between bulls and bears before re-initiation.
- High Volume Bar: Appeared in the initial uptrend phase (early 2021), large bullish candle with high volume, indicating clear signs of major player entry.
- Gradient Volume Bar: In the early stages of an uptrend (end of 2020 to early 2021), volume expands step by step, market sentiment heats up, a typical characteristic of a major uptrend.
- Low Volume Bar: Appears at the end of an uptrend, exacerbating the divergence between volume and price, suggesting exhaustion of upward momentum.
Stage 2 (Downtrend):
- High Volume Bar: Appeared at the beginning of the downtrend, long bearish candlestick with increased volume, indicating the dominant force of bears.
- Low Volume Bar: Appears during the mid-term of a downtrend, indicating strong market observation sentiment, possibly nearing a phase of stop decline.
- Average Volume Bar: Appeared during mid-term oscillation, indicating temporary equilibrium after a sell-off.
- High Volume Bar: A significant rebound accompanied by a bullish high-volume bar, but subsequent follow-up is insufficient, constituting a false bullish signal.
- Gradient Volume Bar: No significant appearance.
- Low Volume Bar: Throughout the later part of the downtrend, volume continues to decline, major players are inactive.
Stage 3 (Consolidation Phase):
- High Volume Bar: No significant increase, maintaining low volatility.
- Low Volume Bar: Appears multiple times, indicating extreme market indifference, easily becoming a starting point for a rebound.
- Average Volume Bar: Repeatedly appears, indicating bears have not exerted power, cautious between bulls and bears.
- High Volume Bar: Appeared at the beginning of 2024, indicating an intent to test a breakout.
- Gradient Volume Bar: No sustainability, indicating that major players have not completed their accumulation.
- Low Volume Bar: Overall maintains low volume, indicating a clear consolidation state.
Stage 4 (Turning Point):
- High Volume Bar: The latest bullish candle accompanied by significant volume, breaking the previous consolidation pattern, suspected to be a major player's testing.
- Low Volume Bar: Just after the end of the previous consolidation period, low-volume oscillation appears, serving as a precursor to a trend change.
- Average Volume Bar: A breakout above the previous bar, indicating a critical point for bulls and bears.
- High Volume Bar: A breakout with a high-volume bullish candle from the previous month, suspected to be the initial movement of a major uptrend.
- Gradient Volume Bar: Continuous small bullish volume rise before the uptrend, consistent with early initiation signals.
- Low Volume Bar: Has been broken through by a high-volume breakout, indicating a possible trend reversal.
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3. Trinity Analysis (Structure + Position + Volume)
```text
[Stage]: Turning Point (Initial Movement of Major Uptrend)
[Structure]: Consolidation breakout + High-volume bullish initiation
[Position]: Relatively low to mid-level (not breaking the previous high of 793, currently around 647)
[Volume Bar]: Low volume accumulation + High-volume bullish candle + High-volume testing
[Main Player Behavior]: After a long accumulation, major players began to break through the previous consolidation area at the end of 2024, currently entering a testing phase; if they remain above 600, they may challenge the previous high.
[Operational Suggestions]: Pay attention to the stability of support in the 650-680 range during oscillation; if low-volume does not break and followed by high-volume bullish candles, consider phased entry; if it breaks below 600, be wary of false bullish risks and consider short-term stop-loss exit.
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✅ Chart Indicators
- The current monthly MACD's golden cross remains in an upward trend, combined with structural breakouts, indicating expectations for a major uptrend.
- If the next month breaks above 700 confirming the attack on previous highs, it can be seen as a clear trend strengthening signal.