đ„ Current Escalation
Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion", striking Iranian nuclear, military, and leadership targetsâincluding sites at Isfahan, Natanz, and Tehranâkilling several key figures .
Iran responded with âOperation True Promise IIIâ, firing over 150 ballistic missiles and 100+ drones toward Israel. Casualties include Israeli civilians and soldiers; Iranian military figures were also killed .
Both nations continue air/missile exchanges, halting airspace in neighboring countries, and signaling the conflict may span weeks rather than days .
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đ Strategic Outlook & Predictions
1. Potential for Prolonged Campaign
Analysts at ISW assess the current phase as an opening volley in what could be a multi-week air campaign focused on degrading Iranâs nuclear and military infrastructure .
Atlantic Council experts suggest Israelâs objectives may range from delaying Iranâs nuclear capability to pursuing regime change, depending how far strikes go .
2. Iran's Retaliatory Capacity
Iran still retains a significant, albeit partially depleted, ballistic missile inventory. It has shown restraint via selective missile/drones use but retains other non-military avenuesâsuch as cyberattacks or proxy actions .
Experts at Atlantic Council highlight that Iran may opt for âstrategic patience,â focusing on rebuilding air defenses and avoiding costly escalations .
3. Role of External Players
United States: Officially not participating in strikes but providing missile defense support to Israel. Former President Trump has issued escalating warnings to Iran .
Global Powers: Russia and China are unlikely to intervene directly; regional players like Australia and the EU are calling for restraint .
4. Economic Consequences
Oil prices surged amid fears of disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, possibly approaching $90/barrel if hostilities intensify or spread .
Historical precedent shows spikes are often short-lived, with markets swiftly adjusting once risk stabilizes .
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đź Conflict Trajectory Forecast
1. **Short-Term (Days to Weeks):**
Continued IDF strikes on Iranian sites; Iran may retaliate selectively or rely more on proxies and cyber means.
Diplomatic pressures will intensifyâespecially in calls for ceasefires or UN mediation.
2. **Mid-Term (Weeks to Months):**
A noticeable cooling period could emerge if Iran chooses restraint and Israel achieves key objectives.
Possible de-escalation if negotiations resume, though the rupture of nuclear talks makes this less likely for now .
3. **Risks of Broader War:**
Despite heightened concerns, analysts note regime restraint, lack of enthusiasm among proxies like Hezbollah, and U.S. and regional caution reduce the likelihood of a wider multiparty war .
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â Summary
This is not yet a full-scale war, but the conflict is intense and destructive, with ongoing tactical strikes on both sides.
Short- to mid-term outlook: continued air/missile exchanges, economic shockwaves (notably in energy), but eventual de-escalation seems the most likely pathâunless thereâs a major miscalculation.
Long-term peace depends on renewed diplomacy, nuclear dialogue, and international coordinationâcurrently stalled.
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Let me know if youâd like analysis on specific aspects like proxy involvement, economic impact, or diplomatic scenarios.