At the heart of Dr. Cat's thesis is the
2,041-satoshi level, where three separate
chimoku timeframes-monthly, bi-monthly
and tri-monthly-intersect. "The price
keeps eating support after support with
no reaction from bulls at all as if supports
don't exist," he concedes, but he stresses
that this specific shelf is "the most
important support.
Candles on the attached one-month chart
already hover fractionally below the line;
a decisive monthly close beneath it, he
warns, would flip the three-day structure
fully bearish and scatter the pair into
unpredictable, possibly chaotic ranges.
Even so, the strategist insists history is
on the side of $XRP bulls. "Price has spent
years performing very well and coiling up
vith higher lows for this attack now," he
vrites, framing the past twelve quarters as
a prolonged accumulation that has never
surrendered its series of macro higher
lows.
That coiling, he believes, will allow XRP
to mount at least a "minor ... attack in
August" toward the 3,000-satoshi region
-roughly a 45 percent appreciation from
current levels-and perhaps fuel a "much
bigger attack" once the broader market
cycle matures.
The optimism is not unqualified. Dr.
Cat calculates a 30 percent chance of
a complete flop if 2,041 sats fails on a
monthly-close basis. Under that bearish
branch, the cross could slice toward 1,800
- 1,900 sats, attempt a feeble rebound, or
continue a "slow bleed all the way down tc
the bottom of the range where it started
the monster move." In such a setback
he would not expect the long-anticipated
"monster bullish move" until Q4 2025 at
the earliest.
For the moment, therefore, the market
hangs on a single number. Hold above
2,041 and Dr. Cat sees a clear shot at
putperforming Bitcoin-first modestly, ther
dramatically.
Slip beneath it, and the road map
dissolves into what he bluntly calls an
unpredictable/choppy" expanse. Either
way, $XRP traders now know exactly where
the cycle's pivot resides and precisely how
thin the margin for error has become.
