Tonight's Core Observations on Market Dynamics

Tonight, closely monitor the market focusing on the following three key dimensions, which will reveal the underlying logic of potential price trajectories:

1. Institutional-Level Positioning Anomaly Alert:

Be cautious of significant inflows of 5,000 BTC or more to trading platforms. Such large “recharges” often signal the potential intention of big holders to release their chips, constituting a major source of selling pressure that cannot be ignored in the market.

2. Federal Reserve Policy Indicator Analysis:

The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be of utmost importance. The central focus of his remarks will be whether he mentions the keyword “interest rate cut.” The market is highly sensitive to expectations of a shift in his monetary policy, and the appearance of this term will serve as a clear directive for short-term bears to exit quickly, or trigger a sharp price rebound.

3. Objective Validation of Volume Breakthrough:

If the market attempts to challenge and break through the key resistance level of $106,800, the technical aspect requires that its momentum must be fully confirmed—i.e., an instantaneous peak must be supported by a real trading volume of at least $850 million. A breakthrough without matching volume is questionable in its validity and is likely to become a false signal.

The dominant logic of tonight's trading will revolve around the tug-of-war between supply pressure triggered by whale actions, macro emotional variables triggered by the Federal Reserve's words, and the substantial buying power required for price testing key levels. Investors should maintain high focus and rationally discern the authenticity and weight of market signals.

Follow me, and I will help you see through the phenomenon to the essence, as we navigate through bull and bear markets together.