Is the exchange stablecoin experiencing a brief resurgence? Be careful, this might be the last lure before a crash!
Last night, I glanced at the on-chain data and it almost made me laugh in anger— the stock of exchange stablecoins just crawled back to the levels of June 11, and a bunch of people are eager to shout 'the bull is back.' These folks probably haven't seen the bigger crisis behind it: a net outflow of 2 billion USD in the past seven days. This is like an ICU patient suddenly being able to sit up and take a few bites of food, but the fact that they're still hooked up to machines hasn't changed at all!
Brother Xun sees through three tricks
1. The data illusion is played smoothly:
The rebound in stock relies entirely on Tether stuffing 1.5 billion USDT into exchanges at dawn. But other stablecoins are still fleeing like crazy, clearly acting to deceive retail investors into taking the bait!
2. The outflow valve hasn't been closed at all:
Just look at the on-chain records of Kraken and Coinbase, large holders are withdrawing funds to cold wallets at regular intervals every day, and another 170 million USD slipped away last midnight. This is like filling a bathtub while draining it; the water level seems unchanged, but the water is almost cold!
3. The bottom-fishing funds are all short-lived:
The 'mysterious bottom-fishing' funds from the day before yesterday saw 80% withdrawn within 36 hours. Now, the retail investors rushing in are definitely going to be the bag holders.
Should we take action now?
• Spot traders, stay alert:
If the stock of stablecoins doesn't surpass 60 billion USD, all rebounds are just tricks. The exchanges only have 54.3 billion left, which isn't enough for the big players to fill their gaps!
• Contract gamblers, pay attention:
During the period of stablecoin stock replenishment, the liquidation rate is three times higher than usual! Last Tuesday, when this signal appeared, over 800 million long positions were liquidated in just one hour.
• Honest folks with empty positions, heed this advice:
Miners dumped another 3,800 BTC into Binance today, and the exchange's Bitcoin stock has exceeded 2.48 million— the shells are piled at the door, and you still want to charge in?
Are you trapped? When to bottom-fish? As always, if you're confused and don't know what to do, click on my avatar to comment. I need fans, and you need references
