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📉 Fed Rate-Cut Speculation & Crypto



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🔍 Market Takeaways



























FactorShort-TermMid-Term (1–2 Months)Geopolitical riskElevated volatility, price dips to ~$103K–$105KPotential deeper drop if Strait closesRate-cut hopesWeak upside; sharp whipsaws likelyLack of cuts → pressure on BTC toward $70KBuying opportunity?Possibly at $100K–$105K levels, like past dipsIf sell-off intensifies, $65K–$70K may emerge as attractive entry



🧭 Opinion Snapshot



  • Conflict-driven dump: Given history and sharp rise from $74K→$112K, BTC could fall 35–50%, possibly to $65K–$70K in 1–2 months.


  • Fed narrative: Even with no cuts, retail might buy on hope, smart money exits—leading to another drop.


  • TA confirmation: Technical structures like double tops and trendline tests could reinforce bearish scenarios before rebound.



🧠 Personal Strategy


Consider this:



  2. Short-term bounce possible (to $110K–$115K), but overall downtrend likely.


  4. Focus on gradual accumulation in $65K–$70K range.


  6. Use conservative sizing and tight risk controls—conflict news could cause erratic moves.



Let me know if you want deeper analysis on TA charts, projections, or historical comparisons regarding BTC's reaction to global risk events!$BTC