#以色列伊朗冲突
The military conflict between Israel and Iran has had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, with its effects involving multiple factors such as market sentiment, capital flows, and policy expectations. Below is a summary of the analysis and impact pathways based on recent events:
1. Immediate market response and data performance
1. Cryptocurrency price plummet
- After the outbreak of the conflict, Bitcoin plummeted from $106,000 to $103,000 within hours, a drop of 2.8%; other major tokens such as Ethereum and Solana also fell by more than 8%-10%.
- The scale of liquidations surged: in 24 hours, the global cryptocurrency market saw liquidations amounting to $1.16 billion, involving 250,000 investors, with long position liquidations accounting for as much as 92% ($1.07 billion).
2. Flight to safer assets
- Prices of traditional safe-haven assets (such as gold and crude oil) soared: gold broke through $3,400/ounce, while Brent crude oil surged 13% in one day to $77/barrel.
- Comparison of capital flows: $1.2 billion flowed into gold ETFs in one day, while Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $180 million, indicating that investors are temporarily shifting towards more stable asset classes.
2. Core mechanisms of impact transmission
1. Sentiment transmission and market leverage vulnerability
- Geopolitical black swan events triggered a sharp drop in risk appetite, with high-leverage positions being the most affected. Before the crash, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts reached 0.07%, open interest surged by 18%, and derivatives leverage surpassed 25 times, creating a “long position crowding” risk.
- Technical sell-off exacerbated volatility: Bitcoin triggered over $1 billion in forced liquidations of long positions when it fell below $103,000, leading to a chain reaction.
2. Policy expectations and regulatory uncertainty
- The U.S. Congress may delay the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs due to a proposal by the Democrats to limit military aid to Israel, and the escalation of the conflict may lead the SEC to act more cautiously.
- Iran may utilize cryptocurrency to counter sanctions: In 2023, Iran secured $1.5 billion through mining and trading; if the conflict persists, its scale of cryptocurrency usage may further expand, affecting supply and demand balance.
3. Energy market linkage effect
- If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz (which accounts for 30% of global maritime oil transport), crude oil prices could soar to $130/barrel, driving up global inflation and indirectly suppressing the allocation demand for risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies).
