### ⚖️ I. Current Market Background Review (June 9-13)
1. Geopolitical shocks
- Israeli airstrikes on Iran have triggered a global risk-off sentiment, with Bitcoin plunging over 4% in a single day, briefly falling below $103,000, causing $1.16 billion in liquidations for 250,000 people within 24 hours.
- The 'weekend effect' of the Middle East conflict may continue; if the situation worsens, Bitcoin may test the psychological level of $100,000; if it eases, a technical rebound may occur.
2. Macro and policy pressures
- The Federal Reserve's June 18th FOMC meeting is expected to maintain interest rates (4.25%-4.50%) with a 99.8% probability, delaying rate cuts until September, suppressing risk asset momentum.
- The US core CPI in May fell to 2.4%, but geopolitical risks and tariff policies (reciprocal tariffs expire on July 9) are heightening market caution.
3. Key technical levels
- $100,000-$102,000 is a strong support range; breaking below may see a dip to $95,000; resistance is at $110,000-$112,000.
- The 50-day moving average ($104,500) and the 200-day moving average ($98,000) form dynamic support, with RSI (71) indicating a neutral to oscillating trend.
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### 📊 II. Next Week's Trend Prediction (June 16-20)
#### Core Scenario Analysis
- Base case scenario (60% probability): Oscillating rebound testing $108,000
- If geopolitical tensions do not escalate, weekend short sellers taking profits may drive a technical rebound to the $106,000-$107,000 range (according to Justin Bennett).
- Institutional buying (such as continuous inflows from ETFs) and the solid support at $100,000 may help drive a rebound, targeting the $110,000 resistance level.
- Pessimistic scenario (30% probability): Break below $100,000 testing $95,000
- If the Middle East conflict expands or the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance, Bitcoin may break below key support, triggering long liquidations and accelerating the decline to $95,000-$98,000.
- On-chain data shows increased net inflows to exchanges (5,200 BTC), suggesting potential selling pressure.
- Optimistic scenario (10% probability): Break above $112,000 targeting $120,000
- If the FOMC meeting unexpectedly signals a rate cut or favorable regulations (like the stablecoin bill passing), combined with short covering, it may quickly break through resistance.
#### Daily Price Fluctuation Forecast
Combining technical models with institutional views, the daily key price predictions for next week are as follows (in USD):
| Date | Day | Forecast Price | Fluctuation Range (Low-High) |
|----------------|------------|--------------|-----------------------|
| June 16 | Monday | 106,541 | 99,083 - 113,999 |
| June 17 | Tuesday | 103,631 | 96,377 - 110,885 |
| June 18 | Wednesday | 102,112 | 94,964 - 109,260 |
| June 19 | Thursday | 102,102 | 94,955 - 109,249 |
| June 20 | Friday | 106,471 | 99,018 - 113,924 |
Data source: Long-term forecasting model
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### ⚠️ III. Key Variables and Risk Warnings
1. Geopolitics: Iran's retaliation and the US-Israel response will dominate short-term sentiment, requiring close attention to weekend news.
2. Federal Reserve Policy: The June 18th FOMC statement and dot plot, if they suggest a rate cut in September, may serve as a catalyst for a rebound.
3. Regulatory dynamics: If the US stablecoin bill (GENIUS Act) passes in the House of Representatives, it may boost market confidence.
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### 💡 IV. Operational Suggestions
- Short-term traders:
Gradually build long positions in the $100,000-$102,000 range, placing stop-loss below $99,000; partial profit-taking can occur if it rebounds to $108,000-$110,000.
- Long-term holders:
Focus on buying opportunities below $100,000, with a target still looking at $120,000-$150,000 in the second half of the year (according to Bernstein).
- Risk control:
Reduce leverage to below 3 times to avoid liquidation risks from geopolitical events.
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### 💎 Summary
Next week, Bitcoin is likely to **fluctuate in the $100,000-$110,000 range**, with a higher possibility of a suppress-then-rise scenario: at the start of the week, it may test support levels under geopolitical risk pressure, and later in the week, if macro headwinds are exhausted, a rebound may occur. **$100,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears**; holding above it will maintain the mid-term upward trend, while falling below increases the risk of a deep correction. Key attention should be given to the June 18th FOMC meeting and developments in the Middle East.
