The scenario of a large war in the Middle East, resulting in the cessation of oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf to the global market due to the destruction of almost all extraction and processing complexes, was well anticipated and described earlier. The USA is being forced to leave the region; in 2027/2028–2030, the central focus of the geopolitical agenda will be the confrontation with China. Above all scenarios, Americans will need to cut off supplies from the Persian Gulf, and how is this easiest done with others' hands? A military conflict between Iran and Israel, with regular 'accidental strikes' on the fields of neighboring Arabs, to ensure certainty.
Iran's nuclear program is just a pretext, much like the terrorist attack by Hamas in the fall of 2023; this is a long game, and the USA, Israel, and Iran all understand this well. Each is pursuing its long-term, non-conflicting objectives, and they are all satisfied. The current casualties and destruction are a heavy but necessary price. For perspective, Yasser Arafat never woke up in the same place twice... After the assassination of Qasem Soleimani (1957–2020), there have been no other figures of such significance; the interchangeability is high. Iran was preparing to play defensively, considering the first strike and the elimination of specific individuals, clearly understanding the risks.
Throughout 2024, Israel tried to provoke Iran into more active confrontation, repeatedly activating the 'military operation' in the Gaza Strip (a strip 40 km long and 6 to 12 km wide), slowly creating conditions for the expulsion and displacement of 2 million Palestinians somewhere outside. The Persians did not escalate, supporting but not raising the stakes, gradually lowering the tension. In 2014, snipers 'appeared' on Maidan in Kyiv, starting to shoot at both sides, and Israel escalated the situation itself.
No side will be able to achieve military or economic victory, and breaking the opponent psychologically will also not work. Overall, nothing has changed:
▪️The USA needs a large regional war to deprive China and the EU of energy resources;
▪️Israel needs to evict up to 7 million Arabs from the controlled territory, creating conditions for survival over the next 30 years;
▪️Iran and Israel – to destroy Arab countries and conduct mobilization, a mental restructuring of their own populations;
▪️Iran – to gain control over all Shiite territories in the region, which is equivalent to controlling all oil and gas fields, even if they are not exploited for 7-10 years;
▪️Russia – the third party rejoicing, across all time horizons, will resolve its issues in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Turkey in the long run.
It is needless to say that upon achieving their goals, all the mentioned subjects will agree on peace in the region at the expense of the Arabs and Turks. The most inadequate from each side will be condemned and 'punished' by their own, sent to serve their sentences under new documents to... Latin America, where there are many good places. The confrontation will last until the early 2030s, occurring at a jerky pace – the goal is not important, but the path is; we await counter-moves, exchanges of pieces, etc. No vulgar boxing or football – a tournament of classical chess, with breaks for lunch, sleep, and team assistance. Only Hardcore and Old School!
It is still far from the use of tactical nuclear weapons, but the Middle East is the most convenient place to remind humanity of it, as they have stopped fearing it.
And yes, in the world of pink ponies, the global media discussed for several days how toxic Israel treated the not-so-distant Greta Thunberg, who doesn't know what school or punishment is. In the world of realpolitik, such individuals, politicians, and journalists do not survive...))