#以色列伊朗冲突 The impact of the Middle East war, shale oil and Trump's policies on oil prices and the Bitcoin market
The recent tense situation in the Middle East, especially Israel's air strikes on Iran, has caused fluctuations in global oil prices and virtual currency markets. As of June 13, 2025, the price of Brent crude oil was about $73.60 per barrel, down from $76.22 per barrel at the beginning of the year, indicating that the US shale oil revolution (13.4 million barrels per day) and OPEC+ production increases (411,000 barrels per day) have buffered geopolitical risks. US shale oil has reduced its dependence on Middle Eastern oil, keeping oil prices relatively low. In the short term, it was pushed up to $77 per barrel due to the war and then quickly fell back. OPEC+ (Saudi Arabia, UAE) production increases and Trump's low oil price policy (target $50 per barrel) further suppressed prices. J.P. Morgan predicts an average price of $66 per barrel in 2025 and a drop to $58 per barrel in 2026.
Low oil prices are conducive to easing inflationary pressures, supporting the Fed's expectations of rate cuts (50-75 basis points in 2025), and are good for risky assets such as Bitcoin. However, the Middle East war triggered risk aversion, and Bitcoin fell from $108,000 to $102,600 (a drop of 3-5%). Similar to the early days of the Russian-Ukrainian war (Bitcoin fell to $34,324 and then rebounded), the market is gradually adapting to geopolitical risks. At the same time, countries such as the United States, El Salvador, and Taiwan, as well as institutions such as MicroStrategy and BlackRock, increased their holdings of Bitcoin, pushing up trading volume. The X platform showed a high sentiment for bottom-fishing, and indicators such as RSI suggested that it was a buying opportunity. Trump's close relationship with Saudi Arabia (US$600 billion investment) and the UAE (US$1.4 trillion cooperation) stabilized oil prices and indirectly supported the Bitcoin market, but his tough stance on Iran (nuclear negotiation deadlock) could push oil prices up to $100 per barrel, suppressing the price of the currency. Low oil prices reduce mining costs and are good for Bitcoin supply, but if the war escalates, inflationary pressure may delay interest rate cuts and increase market risks.
Investors should pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting, the Iran nuclear talks and the Federal Reserve. In the short term, you can buy Bitcoin at around $100,000 and set a stop loss (US$95,000); hold it for the long term and diversify investments in gold and the US dollar to deal with uncertainty. Bitcoin is driven by national reserves and institutional funds, and its long-term potential is promising, but we need to be wary of the short-term impact of geopolitics and oil price fluctuations.