#以色列伊朗冲突

Israel's airstrikes on Iran have heightened tensions in the Middle East, leading to a significant rise in international gold prices. As of June 13, 2025, the spot gold price briefly exceeded $3444 per ounce, with a weekly increase of over 3.5%, approaching April's historical high of $3500. The main reasons for the market's risk-averse sentiment are:

1. Geopolitical risk driving: The conflict may escalate into a regional war, or even trigger extreme risks of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, prompting investors to turn to gold for hedging.

2. Central bank gold purchases support: Global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings (for example, China has increased its reserves for seven consecutive months), coupled with the trend of 'de-dollarization', which strengthens long-term demand for gold.

3. Inflation and policy expectations: The U.S. May CPI data is moderate, and the market is betting on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, further boosting gold prices.

Short-term gold price trends depend on whether the conflict escalates; if the situation worsens, it may break through historical highs.