Introduction
The conflict between Iran and Israel represents one of the most prominent security challenges in the Middle East, characterized by a deep animosity that transcends political disagreements to reach an existential struggle related to ideology and regional interests. This conflict is considered an extension of the geopolitical rivalry among major powers in the region, directly affecting the stability of several countries such as Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
The historical and ideological roots
1. The historical background:
Unlike the Arab-Israeli conflict, Iranian-Israeli relations have not always been hostile. Before the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran, under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was a close ally of Israel, with both countries cooperating in security and economic fields. However, after the revolution's victory, the Islamic Republic adopted an anti-Israel discourse, considering it a 'usurping entity' that must be eliminated.
2. The ideological factor:
Iran's hostility towards Israel is based on religious and political foundations. Religiously, Iran adopts a discourse that supports 'liberating Jerusalem' and sees Israel as an enemy of Muslims. Politically, Israel is considered a key ally of the United States, Iran's number one enemy since the revolution.
The dimensions and areas of the conflict
1. The nuclear file:
The Iranian nuclear program is one of the most significant points of contention, with Israel accusing Iran of seeking to possess nuclear weapons, a claim that Tehran denies, asserting that its program is peaceful. Israel has carried out several sabotage operations against Iranian nuclear facilities, such as the 'Stuxnet' cyberattacks and the assassination of nuclear scientists.
2. Proxy conflict:
Iran and Israel resort to indirect warfare through proxies in the region, with Iran supporting groups such as 'Hezbollah' in Lebanon, 'Houthis' in Yemen, and 'resistance factions' in Gaza, while Israel strikes Iranian targets in Syria and Lebanon.
3. Direct confrontations:
In recent years, there has been an escalation in direct confrontations, such as the Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus (April 2024) and drone attacks between the two countries. Israel also accuses Iran of being involved in attacks against its interests around the world.
The regional and international repercussions
1. The impact of the conflict on the region:
This conflict has complicated crises in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, as these countries have become arenas for Iranian-Israeli competition. It has also increased the risk of a comprehensive war, especially with the rising threatening rhetoric from both sides.
2. The role of international powers:
The United States plays a key role in supporting Israel, while Iran relies on alliances with Russia and China. Additionally, nuclear agreements, such as the '2015 nuclear deal' and the U.S. withdrawal from it, have affected the dynamics of the conflict.
The potential future of the conflict
1. Escalation scenario:
As the targeting exchange between the two parties continues, any miscalculation could lead to a large-scale war, especially if Iran decides to respond directly to Israeli attacks.
2. Containment scenario:
International pressures may lead to containing the crisis through indirect negotiations, especially if Iran and the West reach a new nuclear agreement that limits Tehran's military activities.
3. Geopolitical change scenario:
A change in regime in Iran or Israel could lead to a radical shift in relations, but this scenario remains unlikely in the foreseeable future.
The conclusion
The Iranian-Israeli conflict remains one of the most complex crises in the Middle East, combining ideology and geopolitical interests. While direct confrontations between the two sides have been limited so far, the rising threats and the absence of direct dialogue put the region on the brink of the abyss. Any solution to this conflict requires serious international efforts to contain tensions and open diplomatic channels, as the outbreak of a comprehensive war would have catastrophic repercussions on the region and the world.